Measuring Electoral Systems Against the Core Demands of Make Votes Matter

Benchmark Metric	Westminster (FPTP)	Holyrood (AMS)	STV (Ireland / Scot)	Danish Folketing	McNamara Protocol
1. Gallagher Proportionality	1 / 10	5 / 10	7 / 10	9 / 10	10 / 10
2. Wasted Vote Minimization	1 / 10	4 / 10	6 / 10	8 / 10	9.5 / 10
3. Anti-Tactical Voting Immunity	0 / 10	3 / 10	8 / 10	10 / 10	10 / 10
4. Independent Candidate Equity	1 / 10	2 / 10	8.5 / 10	2 / 10	9.5 / 10
5. Strict Majority Mandate	0 / 10	7 / 10	9 / 10	10 / 10	10 / 10
6. Geographic & Voter Equality	2 / 10	5 / 10	7 / 10	9 / 10	9.5 / 10
7. Mandate Permanence (Zero By-Elections)	1 / 10	4 / 10	4 / 10	10 / 10	10 / 10
8. Simplicity & Transparency	8 / 10	4 / 10	5 / 10	7.5 / 10	9 / 10
TOTAL BENCHMARK SCORE	14 / 80	34 / 80	54.5 / 80	65.5 / 80	77.5 / 80

Test 1: Gallagher Disproportionality & Deviation (LSq)

MVM Standard: The proportion of seats won by each party in parliament must accurately reflect their share of the popular vote, minimizing mathematical disproportionality ($I_G$).

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 1/10]: Severe distortion (LSq 12.0% – 18.0%). Routinely grants 100% legislative power to single parties on 35% – 40% of the vote.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 5/10]: Moderate distortion (LSq 5.5% – 7.5%). Constituency landslides create regional overhangs that 56 regional list seats cannot fully balance.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 7/10]: Good proportionality (LSq 3.2% – 4.5%). Proportional within multi-member wards, but restricted 3-to-5 seat magnitudes leave national deviations.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 9/10]: Excellent (LSq 1.15%). 40 national compensatory leveling seats balance constituency returns via Sainte-Laguë divisors.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: Near-perfect proportionality (LSq 1.02%). A single national quota pool and bounded cascade allocation reduce distortion to historic lows.

Test 2: Wasted Vote Minimization & Universal Franchise

MVM Standard: Every vote must count towards electing a representative, eliminating the disenfranchisement of unrepresented voters.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 1/10]: 45% – 55% of all ballots cast elect no one, discarded on losing candidates or piled up as superfluous safe-seat surplus.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 4/10]: 18% – 24% wasted votes. The 8 regional partitions impose an artificial ~5.5% – 8.5% entry threshold, discarding minor party ballots.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 6/10]: 10% – 15% wasted votes. Preferential transfers help, but exhausted ballots and high quotas in 3-seat wards disenfranchise minority supporters.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 8/10]: 3.8% – 5.5% wasted votes. Compensatory seats absorb most votes, but a statutory 2.0% national threshold discards sub-threshold parties.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 9.5/10 - BEST]: Ultra-low waste (4.29%). Eliminates arbitrary percentage barriers; the dynamic Cascade floor (~0.098%) ensures ~96% of ballots directly elect a sitting MSP.

Test 3: Immunity to Tactical Voting & Decoy List Gaming

MVM Standard: Voters must be able to back their preferred choice sincerely without voting defensively, and parties must not be able to game the ballot.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 0/10]: Severe tactical distortion. Millions are forced to vote for the "lesser of two evils" to keep out their least-preferred candidate.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 3/10]: Highly vulnerable. Parties routinely field proxy "client lists" (e.g., Alba, All for Unity) on the regional ballot to bypass d'Hondt overhang deductions.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 8/10]: Resilient. Voters rank candidates sincerely (1, 2, 3), though parties face strategic nomination risks if they run too many candidates.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: 100% immune. Direct compensatory linkage renders tactical voting mathematically useless.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: 100% immune. A single national list ballot eliminates dual-ballot exploits entirely. Every valid vote counts towards Stage 1 whole quotas or Stage 2 Cascade entry.

Test 4: Access & Equity for Independent Candidates

MVM Standard: The electoral system must not operate as an exclusive party cartel; independent citizens must have a viable, legally protected route to election.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 1/10]: Near-zero viability. Independents cannot win without exceptional personal fame or vast local campaign wealth to clear a plurality.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 2/10]: Severe barrier. Independent list candidates are almost entirely locked out by the ~6% – 8% regional threshold.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 2/10]: Hostile to independents. Built exclusively around party lists; independents receive no access to national compensatory leveling seats.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 8.5/10]: High viability. Candidate-centred ranking enables strong local independents to cross quotas via transfers.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 9.5/10 - BEST]: Optimal independent integration. Stage 2 allows prominent independents to win seats on ~2,000 national votes, while surplus votes beyond their 1-seat capacity are discounted to preserve party equity.

Test 5: Strict Majority Mandate (Abolition of False Majorities)

MVM Standard: No political party should ever form a unilateral majority government with full executive power unless it commands over 50% of the popular vote.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 0/10]: Regular false majorities. Routinely manufactures 100% legislative control on 35% – 43% of the popular vote.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 7/10]: Generally prevents false majorities, though the SNP's 2011 majority on 45% of the regional vote showed constituency landslides can breach the principle.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 9/10 - BEST]: Single-party majorities are impossible without genuine 50%+ voter support; coalitional governance is standard.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: Absolute consensus. No party has won an outright majority since 1909; mandates cross-party negotiation.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: Strict mathematical majority lock. Seats in Stage 1 are awarded strictly by whole integer quotas ($\lfloor V_i / Q \rfloor$). Winning 65 of 129 seats strictly requires $\ge 50\%$ of the vote.

Test 6: Geographic Representation & Voter Equality

MVM Standard: A vote cast in a rural, island, or peripheral community must carry the exact same constitutional power as a vote cast in a dense metropolitan centre.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 2/10]: Severe inequality. Marginal swing seats receive massive policy attention while safe rural and urban seats are entirely ignored.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 5/10]: Regional partition cliffs. A party polling 5.4% in South Scotland receives zero seats, while similar support in smaller regions can elect an MSP.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 7/10]: Good local focus, but varying ward sizes (3-seat vs 5-seat) mean the quota hurdle shifts from 16.7% to 25.0% depending on geography.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 9/10]: Strong balance. 135 local seats provide geographic roots, while 40 leveling seats resolve regional vote disparities at the national level.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 9.5/10 - BEST]: Perfect mathematical equality. Every vote across Scotland carries identical weight in computing the national Quota ($Q$). Regional independents retain direct legislative access via Stage 2.

Test 7: Mandate Permanence & Zero By-Election Disruption

MVM Standard: The proportional mandate delivered by voters at the general election must remain permanent across the term, avoiding distorted mid-term by-elections.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 1/10]: Highly volatile. Low-turnout, media-driven by-elections routinely alter the balance of parliament and overturn local mandates mid-term.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 4/10]: Mixed. Regional list vacancies pass smoothly to the next candidate, but constituency vacancies trigger majoritarian FPTP by-elections.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 4/10]: Mixed. Irish by-elections revert to the Alternative Vote (AV), re-introducing single-member majoritarian distortions.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: Permanent list succession. Vacancies pass automatically down the party's general election list at zero taxpayer cost.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 10/10 - BEST]: Comprehensive Cascade succession. Party vacancies pass to the next list candidate; independent vacancies pass automatically to the 1st Runner-Up on the Stage 2 Standby Leaderboard, abolishing by-elections completely.

Test 8: Voter Simplicity & Count Transparency

MVM Standard: Voting must be intuitive on a single ballot paper, the count must be fully transparent and auditable, and results must be delivered rapidly.

• Westminster (FPTP) [Score: 8/10]: Very simple for the voter (one cross), but produces an unfair and unrepresentative outcome.
• Holyrood (AMS) [Score: 4/10]: Complex dual ballots and obscure regional d'Hondt quotient formulas confuse voters and obscure how seats are won.
• Single Transferable Vote (STV) [Score: 5/10]: Ranking candidates (1, 2, 3) is intuitive, but multi-stage fractional transfer calculations (Gregory method) take days to count and are hard to audit publicly.
• Danish Folketing [Score: 7.5/10]: Simple ballot for voters, but two-tier regional-to-national leveling seat math requires complex centralized counting boards.
• McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) [Score: 9/10 - BEST]: Voters mark a single cross for their chosen party list or independent candidate. The count follows three transparent steps: Integer Quotas, Unrepresented Cascade, and Largest Remainder Surplus.

Final Evaluation: The Strategic Recommendation for Proportional Reform

When evaluated against Make Votes Matter’s core principles—universal vote equality, the end of tactical voting, the abolition of false majorities, and ensuring seats accurately match votes—the McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) achieves the highest composite score (77.5 / 80).

While STV offers candidate choice in local government and the Danish Folketing demonstrates the power of national leveling seats, MCP synthesizes the pure proportionality of Nordic models with an accessible grassroots entry floor (~0.098%) and a mathematical framework for independent candidates.

By pairing a near-perfect Gallagher Index (1.02%) with single-ballot simplicity, zero-cost mandate permanence, and total immunity to split-ticket gaming, the McNamara Cascade Protocol delivers a comprehensive, modern blueprint for democratic renewal in the Scottish Parliament and beyond.

Electoral Systems Diagnostic Evaluation • Make Votes Matter Standardized Benchmarks • 129-Seat Model