Strategic Policy & Constitutional Analysis

Why Holyrood’s Governing Party Must Back Electoral Reform

Resolving the "Turkeys Voting for Christmas" Dilemma Through Democratic Legitimacy

The Apparent Paradox

On paper, asking the SNP to replace the Additional Member System (AMS) with the McNamara Cascade Protocol (MCP) looks like asking turkeys to vote for Christmas. The party has repeatedly won near-majorities on 40%–45% of the vote. Transitioning to pure national proportionality means surrendering that artificial seat bonus and dropping ~25–28 seats to match their true popular vote share.

However, treating an electoral system as a tool for short-term party advantage is a strategic dead end. For a party whose core goal is national independence and long-term democratic legitimacy, clinging to a distorted voting system creates fatal vulnerabilities while blocking the path to an unassailable constitutional mandate.

1. The Strategic Case for Reform

The Unassailable 50%+ Mandate

Under AMS, a pro-independence majority won on 45% of the list vote is routinely dismissed by Westminster and international observers as an artifact of regional overhangs. Under the MCP, if pro-independence parties win 65+ seats, it means they secured over 50% of the popular vote—delivering an indisputable moral and legal mandate for statehood.

Broadening the Independence Coalition

AMS forces pro-independence voters into toxic tactical calculations (e.g. "Both Votes SNP" vs. list-splitting). MCP eliminates vote-wasting entirely. Citizens can vote for Greens, socialists, or regional independents without damaging the wider pro-independence seat count, building a diverse majority.

Insurance Against Tactical Wipeouts

First-Past-The-Post and AMS constituency seats are vulnerable to coordinated unionist tactical voting pacts. When public mood shifts, a party can lose 40% of its seats on a 5% vote drop. MCP guarantees that the party’s seat count never drops below its exact popular vote floor.

2. Dismantling the Establishment Objections

Objection 1: "It empowers Edinburgh party bosses over local members." STRAW MAN

The Rebuttal: Electoral law and the McNamara Cascade Protocol govern statutory seat allocation at the ballot box, not internal candidate selection. The MCP is strictly an election system—it neither creates nor fixes internal selection rules. How a party ranks its slate is decided entirely within its own constitution, requiring zero legislative change. If party members want rank-and-file branch control over candidate order, they already possess the power to demand it through branch motions, AGMs, and national conferences. Blaming an external voting system for a party’s internal selection hierarchy is a pure straw man.

Objection 2: "It opens the floodgates to far-right extremists." SCARE TACTIC

The Rebuttal: Empirical simulations of Scottish general election data confirm that the Stage 2 Cascade primarily returns progressive, green, and regional independent candidates reflecting Scotland’s actual voting profile. More fundamentally, arguing against democracy on the basis that voters might back opposing viewpoints is voter suppression. Sunlight and committee scrutiny hold all entrants accountable.

Objection 3: "It destroys the local constituency link." FALSE DEFENSE

The Rebuttal: Under AMS, 56 list MSPs already represent vast regions spanning hundreds of square miles with zero single-member exclusivity. In practice, constituency casework is shared across multi-member delegations. MCP replaces artificial regional boundaries with universal voter equality, while Stage 2 gives authentic local independents an accessible route into parliament.

Objection 4: "It leads to permanent coalition paralysis." PROVEN WRONG

The Rebuttal: The most prosperous and stable democracies in Europe (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland) operate exclusively under proportional consensus governance. Coalition governments require broad societal consensus, producing durable policy that cannot be overturned every five years by single-party minority administrations.

Statesmanship Over Self-Interest

For years, the SNP has signed up to Make Votes Matter pledges and condemned Westminster's First-Past-The-Post system as an undemocratic relic that manufactures false majorities.

To reject the McNamara Cascade Protocol at Holyrood simply to protect an artificial seat bonus would expose that critique as cynical opportunism. True constitutional progress requires matching actions to rhetoric: enacting an electoral system where every vote carries identical constitutional power, majorities require true 50%+ voter consent, and democracy is placed ahead of party advantage.